What is happening to UK prices?

Inflation in the UK rose to 3.5% in the year to September, the highest rate in nearly a year and above the Bank of England's 2% target.

The rise was slightly higher than economists had predicted, driven by higher petrol and diesel prices.

Inflation is widely expected to rise again in the coming months.

Inflation is the increase in the price of something over time.

For example, if a bottle of milk costs £1 but is £1.05 a year later, then annual milk inflation is 5%.

The prices of hundreds of everyday items, including food and fuel, are tracked by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This virtual "basket of goods" is regularly updated to reflect shopping trends, with alcohol-free beer, dashboard cameras, and pet grooming equipment among items added in 2026, while premium bottled lager and sheets of wrapping paper were removed.

The ONS uses price changes in the basket of goods over the previous 12 months to calculate inflation.

The main inflation measure is called the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), external, and the latest figure is published every month.

The Bank of England looks closely at the inflation figures when deciding whether to increase, lower or hold its base interest rate, which is currently 3.75%.

Putting rates up makes borrowing more expensive, giving people and businesses less money to spend, reducing demand for goods and slowing price rises.

But it is a careful balancing act – increasing borrowing costs also risks harming the economy.

For example, homeowners face higher mortgage repayments, which can outweigh better savings deals.

Businesses also borrow less, making them less likely to create jobs.

Some may cut staff and reduce investment.

Although CPI inflation of 3.5% remains above the Bank of England's 2% target, it is well below the 11.1% figure reached in October 2022 as gas and oil prices soared in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While inflation has fallen significantly since then, prices have not.

They have just risen less quickly.

The higher figure for September was mostly caused by higher prices for motor fuel, which rose by 29.8% compared to September last year.

But it can take a year for changes in the cost of food to filter through to the shop floor because of the way supply chains work, so prices could still rise as a result of the widespread disruption caused by the war in Iran.

Inflation soared in 2022 because oil and gas were in greater demand after the Covid pandemic, and energy prices surged again when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Before the war in the Middle East broke out, UK inflation had been expected to be at or around the target level of 2% over the next five years, according to the official forecasts published in March 2026.

But in April, the Bank of England warned that disruption to global energy markets could push UK inflation as high as 6% in the worst-case scenario.

When the latest ceasefire took effect, analysts said it could limit further inflation hikes.

Oil prices initially fell sharply after the deal was announced, but have risen again since the US and Iran resumed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in July.

As a result, UK petrol prices are likely to climb back up.

This - coupled with the 4% increase in household energy bills from 1 October when the latest Ofgem price cap took effect - is expected to push UK inflation higher.

As part of his pledge to provide "breathing space" for households struggling with the cost of living, Prime Minister Andy Burnham scrapped VAT on household electricity bills in October.

It is predicted to have a small downward impact on inflation.

Precisely because food and energy prices can be very volatile, the Bank of England also considers other economic measures such as "core inflation", which excludes these costs.

Core CPI was 2.8% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to August.

What will the energy cap changes mean for my bills?

What does an Andy Burnham-led government mean for your money?

The Bank cut interest rates six times between August 2024 and June 2026, which brought rates down to 3.75%, the lowest level since early 2023.

In April, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee indicated it would act "forcefully" if oil prices did not start to fall, with up to six rate hikes in a worst-case scenario.

At its September meeting, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said energy price volatility made it more likely that interest rates would rise.

The Bank also looks closely at what is happening to wages and unemployment.

The latest official figures show that regular pay in the UK grew ahead of inflation in the three months to August.

Average annual growth in pay, excluding bonuses, during the three-month period was 3.7%.

After taking inflation into account, it means regular pay grew by 0.8% between June and August.